Bookmarks (567)

A Moscow-based disinformation network named “Pravda” — the Russian word for “truth” —  is pursuing an ambitious strategy by deliberately infiltrating the retrieved data of artificial intelligence chatbots, publishing false claims and propaganda for the purpose of affecting the responses of AI models on topics in the news rather than by targeting human readers, NewsGuard […] The post I am not the only one...

1. Mario Rizzo LSE talk on behavioral economics. 2. Pendant. 3. Noah Smith on libertarianism. 4. More AI geoguessing. 5. “Korea is facing a surge in suicides among men in their 30s to 50s, driven by worsening economic hardship, social isolation and high-profile celebrity deaths, highlighting urgent calls for stronger national suicide prevention measures.”  Link […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

Political Scientists James Davenport and Craig Dawkins interview me on everything from tariffs to the Borda Count. Here is one bit I wish to underline: Q. In your opinion, what is the biggest economic myth or misconception that is holding the U.S. back? What worries me most is that we’re treating China like an enemy—and […] The post Tabarrok on the Not My Generation...

It is funny when people say AI cannot serve as a lawyer: On Monday, the State Bar of California revealed that it used AI to develop a portion of multiple-choice questions on its February 2025 bar exam, causing outrage among law school faculty and test takers. The admission comes after weeks of complaints about technical problems and […] The post Dept. of Why Not? appeared first...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Ken and Tyler tackle international economic dynamics, unresolved macro puzzles, the state of chess, and more, including whether trade deficits are truly unsustainable, why China’s investment-heavy growth model has reached its limits, how currency depreciation neutralizes tariff effects, Pakistan’s IMF bailouts, […] The post My Conversation with the excellent Ken...

1. Do LLMs persuade better than humans? 2. Anthropic Economic Index: AI’s Impact on Software Development. 3. For this summer: “This month-long “popup village” is a prototype for Esmeralda, the permanent town they are building 90 minutes north of SF. Edge Esmeralda runs May 24 – June 21 in Healdsburg, just 15 mins from the land they are buying.” 4. Tuna like […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

My little contretemps with Chris Rufo raises the issue of what should classical liberals do? In a powerful essay, C. Bradley Thompson explains why the issue must be faced: The truth of the matter is that the Conservative-Libertarian-Classical Liberal Establishment gave away and lost an entire generation of young people because they refused to defend […] The post What Should Classical Liberals Do? appeared...

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with her.  From Wikipedia: Annie Jacobsen (born June 28, 1967) is an American investigative journalist, author, and a 2016 Pulitzer Prize finalist. She writes for and produces television programs, including Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan for Amazon Studios, and Clarice for CBS. She was a contributing editor to the Los Angeles Times Magazine from 2009 until 2012. Jacobsen writes about war, […] The post What should I ask Annie Jacobsen?...

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one brief excerpt, not unfamiliar to MR readers: As great apes, we obsess over the social hierarchy. Who is being praised and who is being excoriated? Who is hot and who is not? That may sound like gossip, but it is also a […] The post Who is rising and falling in...

Authorities alleged Vong essentially rented out his U.S. identity to developers based in China who used it to get more than a dozen remote tech jobs, some of which involved contract work for sensitive government agencies. A 40-year-old Maryland man is facing decades in prison after he allegedly worked with foreign nationals in China to get remote […] The post Markets in everything appeared first on...

1. o3 beats master geoguesser.  And GPT as therapist. 2. “To support our work in analyzing AI’s economic impacts, we’re pleased to announce the formation of the Anthropic Economic Advisory Council. This group of distinguished economists will provide input on new areas of research for our Economic Index.”  Link here, I am happy to be […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

In 2024, Slovakia accepted 100% of its asylum applicants; Portugal accepted 0% of its asylum applicants. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/migration-2024 Via a number of people in a chain.  The link has further details of interest. The post Slovakia/Portugal fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to mento. ɪᴍ ᴍᴀᴋɪɴɢ ᴏᴠᴇʀ ... by EVAIn reply to Horhe. That's not how EU law works. Dublin...

That is a recent piece of mine at The Free Press (it has been great fun writing there by the way).  Here is one excerpt: Why do I spend so much of my time with email, group chats, and also writing for larger audiences such as Free Press readers? I ask myself that earnestly, and I have […] The post In defense of an online life...

1. The evolution of rattlesnake venom. 2. In 2022, for better or worse, it was the American public who supported masks on planes. 3. “Yields on short-term government debt have dipped into negative territory in recent days as traders bet that the Swiss National Bank will respond with interest rate cuts. Two-year Swiss yields, which […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

From a new NBER working paper: During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws restricting women’s labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. […] The post The Political Economy of Protective Labor...

There are just a few spots left for the Public Choice Outreach Conference! Do encourage your students to apply!   The post The Public Choice Outreach Conference appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Donald Pretari. ɪᴍ ᴍᴀᴋɪɴɢ ᴏᴠᴇʀ ... by EVAIn reply to Donald Pretari. I ɢᴇᴛ ᴘᴀɪᴅ ... by EmmaBeing a Progressive Conservative, I'm voting Conservative ... by Donald PretariIn...

Spain’s grid ran entirely on renewable energy for the first time on April 16, with wind, solar, and hydro meeting all peninsular electricity demand during a weekday. Five days later, solar set a new record, generating 20,120 MW of instantaneous power – covering 78.6% of demand and 61.5% of the grid mix. Here is the […] The post Spain fact of the day appeared...

In a striking demonstration of conservative financial positioning amidst global market uncertainty, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a staggering $300.87 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, accounting for an estimated 4.89% of the entire T-bill market, according to Berkshire’s latest financial reports. Here is the full story. The post USA fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to LivelyClock....

Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago. #demography #fertility #Hungary That is from Csaba G. Tóth, via Noah Smith. The post Hungary fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Zoroto. They literally banned Pride Parade and ... by CytotoxicMy libertarian...

1. Harvard Law Review uh oh. 2. “Vegetative electron microscopy.” 3. Computational analysis of US congressional speeches reveals a shift from evidence to intuition. 4. Waymo total rides per week. 5. Cremieux on autism rates. 6. FT on William Kentridge. 7. My life in a Mexican trouble teen camp. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Donald Pretari....

Yale has approximately one administrator for every undergraduate student (see also here and here). Years of simmering tension about the growth of administration relative to faculty has now been brought forward. President Trump has threatened to cut funding to Yale, the Yale administration has threatened to stop hiring faculty and raises, some faculty are now […] The post Yale Faculty v. Administrators appeared first...

Stripe, a global payments platform, is building a new US dollar stablecoin product for companies based outside the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe in a move that may further expand the footprint of the dollar around the world. Stripe CEO Patrick Collison confirmed the product on X, posting an invitation for companies interested […] The post The new Stripe stablecoin product appeared...

I sometimes wonder how good the AIs will be at predicting our productivity and our future courses of action. Let’s say an advanced AI has your genome, a bunch of your test scores, and has plenty of video of you interviewing.  How well does the AI really understand you? To be clear, I am not […] The post Is it genetics that will give...

The post My 18-minute podcast with Ehsan Adouane appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Karl Pooper. “Word salad 'AGI'”. 🙂 by Chuck KotlarzIn reply to None. Digging a bit deeper, the stats on the ... by Karl PooperIn reply to John the Baptist. It's amazing how small his ... by NoneIn reply to Karl Pooper. To all the Mcdeemers, and the...

1. Fredric Jameson’s favorite films and novels. 2. Why have sentence lengths decreased? 3. Robot dexterity still seems hard. 4. Irish Times on cosmology, and Julian Gough’s long essay here. 5. Mentoring and self-doubt. 6. MIE: ice from Greenland, $100 for six cubes. The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Anon. Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary of Commerce ......

Last year, the state [CA] chancellor’s office estimated 25 percent of community college applicants were bots. Everyone understands that students are using AI; sometimes to help them learn, sometimes to avoid learning. What I didn’t appreciate is that community colleges offering online courses are being flooded with AI bots who are taking the courses: The […] The post AI Goes to College…for the Free...

That is the new and fun book by David Hepworth.  It focuses on the careers of rock stars who simply keep on going and do not retire. Can we admit that Paul McCartney and also the Rolling Stones have made the best of this? Here is one bit: Of the ten most-visited graves in the […] The post *Hope I Get Old Before I...

1. Statement of prayer-question – Xenophon begins by verbally addressing Apollo, asking “to which of the gods should I sacrifice and pray in order best and most successfully to perform the journey I have in mind and return home in safety?” Only once this plea is uttered does Apollo’s priesthood record the god’s reply. 2. […] The post Xenophon’s consultation of the Pythia appeared...

In 1990, less than 1% of the Spanish population were foreign residents. The foreign-born population was even smaller, with immigrants accounting for about 0.5% of residents. In 2023, Spain alone accounted for 23% of all naturalizations in the European Union As of 2025… 14% of residents in Spain are foreign nationals. Nearly 20% of Spain’s […] The post Spain facts of the day appeared...

1. My 2017 post on Moore’s Law and social media. 2. Does Abundance start at home? 3. Listening to classical music for one year. 4. The “liberal elite” favored school reopening. 5. Again, economics-themed comedy show in NYC. 6. The Shrouds was the best Cronenberg movie in a long time, noting that most people still […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

A powerful but grim essay by John McGinnis, Professor of Constitutional Law at Northwestern. For decades, the federal government—driven by the left—expanded its control over universities. The right, most notably Ronald Reagan, tried to resist, shielding civil society from state overreach. They failed. Now, a new right has turned to the left’s playbook and is […] The post The Library Burned Slowly appeared first...

That is a new paper from Denmark, by Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard, here is the abstract: We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched employer-employee data in Denmark. AI chatbots are now widespread—most […] The post Large Language Models, Small Labor Market...

There is a new paper by Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub.  It seems timely?: We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession whenever the import elasticity is below an […] The post The macroeconomics of tariff shocks appeared...

1. Are these the most beautiful colleges in America?  Where is the brutalism?  UC Irvine has some.  I feel like I have been to way, way too many of those campuses. 2. Facts about egg supply chains. 3. Good robot photos in this NYT story about China. 4. “Apply to our 1517 garage science cohort […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, blocked news from its apps in Canada in 2023 after a new law required the social media giant to pay Canadian news publishers a tax for publishing their content. The ban applies to all news outlets irrespective of origin, including The New York Times. Amid the news void, Canada Proud and […] The post Whose disinformation? appeared first on Marginal...

The political problem of disaster preparedness is especially acute for the most useful form, disaster avoidance. The problem with avoiding a disaster is that success often renders itself invisible. The captain of the Titanic is blamed for hitting the iceberg, but how much credit would he have received for avoiding it? Consider a pandemic. When […] The post The Prophet’s Paradox appeared first on...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary: Chris Dixon believes we’re at a pivotal inflection point in the internet’s evolution. As a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and author of Read Write Own, Chris believes the current internet, dominated by large platforms like YouTube and Spotify, has strayed far from its […] The post My excellent Conversation with Chris Dixon...

When two of the smartest people in a university class meet each other, and become friends or start working together, how is it they typically meet?  In class is one option of course, what else is there? This important question seems oddly underdiscussed.  I thank L. for suggesting it to me. The post How do very smart people meet each other? appeared first on...

1. Jon Hartley podcast with Robert Barro. 2. Dwarkesh questions about AI. 3. Why it is hard for women to date well. 4. “Social media constantly incentivizes disagreement, and therefore also demasculinization.” 5. WEF update. 6. It is hard to type mathematical symbols. 7. Ezra talks with Steven Hahn about Trump and American continuity (NYT).  […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Vernon Smith reviews Joe Stiglitz’s book The Road to Freedom: Stiglitz did work in the abstract intellectual theoretical tradition of neoclassical economics showing how the standard results were changed by asymmetric or imperfect information. He is oblivious, however, to the experimental lab and field empirical research showing that agent knowledge of all such information is […] The post Smith Reviews Stiglitz appeared first on...

Aid agencies already try to cover too many countries and sectors, incurring high costs to set up small programs. Aid projects are far too complicated, resembling a Christmas tree weighed down with everyone’s pet cause. With less money (and in the US, very few staff), now is the time to radically simplify. By choosing a […] The post Rachel Glennerster calls for reforming foreign...

Even though the elites themselves are highly imperfect.  That is the theme of my latest FP column.  Excerpt: Very often when people complain about “the elites,” they are not looking in a sufficiently elitist direction. A prime example: It is true during the pandemic that the CDC and other parts of the government gave us […] The post We need more elitism appeared first...

CDPAP’s enrollment, workforce and total costs ballooned after the state relaxed eligibility rules in 2015. The number of people receiving care through the program surged from just under 20,000 in 2016 to almost 248,000 last year. New York state Medicaid spending on CDPAP in the last five years has more than tripled to about $9.1 […] The post Who needs a UBI? appeared first...

1. Brazil fact of the day. 2. My interview with Diario Financiero (Chilean, in Spanish). 3. The AGI Chronicles, a book in the works, I have high hopes. 4. Shruti Rajagopalan named to the Project Syndicate 30 Forward Thinkers list. 5. Max Romeo, RIP, one song by him. 6. Circle is launching a new, stablecoin-based […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Awesome choice, she is one of my favorite economists, and she is also a super-nice person.  Here is the report and list of winners, here are previous mentions on MR. The post Congratulations to the 2025 John Bates Clark Medalist Stefanie Stantcheva  appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Josh K. Ted Lasso by Pubby🍺In reply to Anon. Note that even when...

If you have ideas for cutting regulations, the US government wants to hear from you! This could be important. Provide details on the exact regulation in the CFR. The post Deregulation suggestions appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Kevin Postlewaite. There's value in knowing which ... by TWBCStop the AMA from having any say in the supply of doctors. It's ......

This occurred in Knoxville, you can watch it here.  Lots of fun, and p.s. I am more of a free trader than he is.  We did have some disagreements. The post My debate with Dani Rodrik about tariffs and free trade appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Olivia Turnbull. Olivia, you need to step up your ... by MikePI was surprised...

“The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State” — by Hunt Alcott, et.al. We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook for the six weeks before the election reported a 0.060 standard deviation improvement […] The post Is this a lot or a...

This short note shows that accounting for capital adjustment is critical when analyzing the long-run effects of trade wars on real wages and consumption. The reason is that trade wars increase the relative price between investment goods and labor by taxing imported investment goods and their inputs. This price shift depresses capital demand, shrinks the […] The post Long-Run Effects of Trade Wars appeared...

1. I find this illustrative, and also very, very naive.  Here is a related query.  I think this crowd is bad at modeling social systems and macro systems more generally.  That is an intrinsically thing to do, but I would keep that in mind when reading “rationalist” analyses. 2. Yale sells $6 billion of its […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...