Bookmarks (568)

Here is one very good thread, here is more.  Whatever you make think of these personally, my prediction is they will prove very popular with most European electorates, with local details varying of course. The post What is the new Dutch coalition government up to? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to mento. Never mind : The Ben Coates summary is the...

Here is the story, via the excellent Samir Varma. The post The New Zealand sheep-to-people ratio continues to fall appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to EdR. OK, but then where do ewe go from here? by SheepishSynthetic carpets take over from wool carpets by jimmyAs one of the commenters wrote, a significant reason for ... by Richard PennyIn reply to michael....

1. The ink that Bach used (video). 2. The culture that is German finger-wrestling: “Participants are also prone to nosebleeds from the strain…” 3. A defense of potential European dynamism? 4. Actually using Sora to produce something. 5. What kinds of housing policy do voters want? 6. Lord Monboddo vindicated. 7. Katherine Boyle and Martin […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

Son: Dad, you should text us more. Alex: Ok, but why is that? Son: Well, we are working on the Dad LLM but so far it just spits out economics and twitter quips. We need some sage Dad advice to help us out in the future. Alex: So you want training data for my replacement? […] The post A Conversation on AI with my...

LLMs are going to reveal many of the world’s secrets: Does academic writing in economics reflect the political orientation of economists? We use machine learning to measure partisanship in academic economics articles. We predict observed political behavior of a subset of economists using the phrases from their academic articles, show good out-of-sample predictive accuracy, and […] The post Political Language in Economics appeared first...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary: Benjamin Moser is a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer celebrated for his in-depth studies of literary and cultural figures such as Susan Sontag and Clarice Lispector. His latest book, which details a twenty-year love affair with the Dutch masters, is one of Tyler’s favorite books […] The post My excellent Conversation with Benjamin Moser...

1. Should former BOE economists be de-banked? 2. “We’re testing a new feature that uses Gemini Nano to provide real-time alerts during a call if it detects conversation patterns commonly associated with scams.”  The protection is all “on-device,” so no privacy loss.  Link here. 3. Nick Frisch and Dan Wang on TikTok (NYT). 4. Advantages […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Later this month I will be going to Santa Marta, in northern Colombia, with my sister.  We haven’t done a trip together since we were kids!  Birdwatching and bird photography are big hobbies of hers, and I am happy to be of help in this regard and navigate around. So what is your advice for […] The post Santa Marta (Colombia) and birdwatching bleg...

The Atlantic: Screwworms once killed millions of dollars’ worth of cattle a year in the southern U.S. Their range extended from Florida to California, and they infected any living, warm-blooded animal: not only cattle but deer, squirrels, pets, and even the occasional human. In fact, the screwworm’s scientific name is C. hominivorax or “man eater”—so named […] The post The Screwworm appeared first on Marginal...

Some commentators are suggesting no real ban was in effect.  I went back to the Sara Abrahamsson paper to confirm the following: Schools where students are required to hand in their phones in the morning, and therefore cannot access them during breaks, are considered to have a strict policy against smartphones. Schools where students are […] The post Did Norwegian schools actually ban cell...

Mwigereri Dorcas, Kenya, for research using machine learning techniques for solar energy distribution optimization. Mmesomachi Nwachukwu, Nigeria, to support the Special Maths Academy which prepares teams for competitions including the International Mathematical Olympiad. Mohamed Haoussa, Senegal, for the Pan-African Robotics Competition in Dakar which has had over 2800 participants from middle school to university from […] The post Emergent Ventures Africa and Caribbean, fifth...

Sir Demis Hassabis just showed a super low latency demo of Google’s multimodal AI assistant on your phone AND augmented reality glasses. Clearly they’ve been cooking this for a while. The race is on! pic.twitter.com/BLGaA4sPuE — Bilawal Sidhu (@bilawalsidhu) May 14, 2024 The post I can only wonder what Alice Munro would have said (it’s happening) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply...

One of the very greatest of all writers, ever. The great Alice Munro has died.https://t.co/Kpg7Yjd2Bo — Cheryl Misak (@MisakCheryl) May 14, 2024 The post Alice Munro, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsOne of Norm Macdonald's favourite authors! And I don't think it ... by JMMIn reply to Patches. We typically have to wait a good 50 ... by mkt42I'm super grateful to...

1. Astral Codex on prediction market bans. 2. In real terms, largest instances of U.S. foreign assistance. 3. Things not mentioned in the OpenAI livestream.  And here. 4. How to introduce a German to exotic and spicier foods. 5. ChinaTalk discussion of where China stands with respect to AI. 6. GPT-4o and AI regulation. 7. […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Alec Stapp points out that Canada is the only NATO country that has a free trade agreement with the United States. That’s quite remarkable if you think about it. NATO allies are bound by mutual defense commitments, support for military cooperation, and a dedication to democratic principles. Despite these shared commitments, the U.S. still enforces […] The post Free Trade with Free Nations appeared...

Belgium has passed a law stating that the government can intervene in cases where prostitutes refuse sexual acts too frequently. Pimps may file an official government complaint against their "workers" if they refuse sex more than 10 times in six months.https://t.co/rUN0E7YkJe — ThePublica (@ThePublicaNow) May 12, 2024 Is this ultimately an issue of women not […] The post Restriction of output for me, but...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: There is some bad news afoot for workers. Labor’s share of the US gross domestic product has been falling for a long time, by seven percentage points since World War II. The labor share for 2022 — depending on exactly which measure is used, […] The post The decline in labor’s share of...

And more here, including text. The post Introducing GPT-4o appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Mark Bahner. The output is probably wrong. It’s ... by AdamIn reply to mento. balance, got it. Balancing, getting it. ... by EquestrianIn reply to Schumpeter. Calling it a better siri is like ... by BobIn reply to Gary Lowe. Oh, many of those random opinions...

1. U.S. foreign aid allocation across nations, based on one specific measure of foreign aid. 2. Singapore writers don’t want the government to train an AI on their work. 3. Most rapidly-selling British novels of the 19th century. 4. Will building companies in the AI era become more expensive because of the Jevons paradox? 5. […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

I propose a dynamic model of the reserve currency paradigm that centers on the liquidity demand for safe assets. In global recessions, the demand for the U.S. safe bond increases and raises its convenience yield, giving rise to a stronger dollar and a countercyclical seigniorage revenue. The seigniorage revenue raises the U.S. wealth and consumption […] The post The reserve currency and the liquidity...

Ben Lang didn’t expect to get so much hate just for being organized. For the past three years, he and his wife, Karen-Lynn Amouyal, have been using Notion, a popular software tool, to optimize their household and relationship. His version of the tool, commonly used by businesses to manage complex projects, functions like a souped-up […] The post Organize your life? appeared first on...

The post Jerry Seinfeld Duke commencement speech appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsThanks for that Commencement Speech post! by gedEvery single Hamas supporter should be given a one way ticket ... by PubbyIn reply to M. Those who applaud Hamas’ acts sincerely ... by PubbyIn reply to Slocum. Yes. But the follow up question is ... by Dan S.In reply to M. “Yep…do...

Just to confirm:– Climate change is unprecedented risk– Mass adoption of EVs is vital– Adoption has slowed bc lack of low-priced options– US companies unable/unwilling to make low-priced EVs– China is global leader in low-priced EVs– US to hit China with 100% EV tariffs — John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) May 12, 2024 The post Just to confirm… appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply...

1. Is it people on the Left who have a better sense for the visual arts? 2. Boat painting regulatory arbitrage? 3. The Dublin portal. 4. Gideon Lewis-Kraus samples flying cars (New Yorker). 5. The popular cover song is dead. 6. 15 percent of the Georgian population was in the streets last night. 7. Immigration […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

A top Wall Street regulator has proposed outlawing election betting in the U.S. derivatives markets, with officials warning that the activity poses a threat to the sanctity of American elections. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is charged with regulating the vast and complex derivatives markets, voted 3-2 on Friday to issue a new rule […] The post There is simply no good reason...

The subtitle is Hw Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.  I am happy to have blurbed this book, here is part of the Amazon description: Was inflation’s recent spike exacerbated by corporate greed? Do rent controls really help the needy? Are U.S. health care prices set in a Wild West marketplace? Do […] The post Ryan Bourne’s *The War on Prices*...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, and here is the basic setting: Apple unveiled a record stock buyback plan last week even as it increased its dividend by 4%, to 25 cents per share. That made the market happy, and shares in the company are up about 10% since the announcement. And this: Given that the […] The post The economics of Apple share repurchase...

1. A guy visits Chinese electric cars. 2. What Benjamin Manning is up to with LLMs and economics. 3. Roland Fryer on signaling and the protests (WSJ). 4. Henry Oliver’s Second Act is available in US now on Kindle, September in hardcover. 5. Obesity gender differences around the world. 6. “Rev Sue Parfitt, 82, and […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

My dad always used to say that the way you build wealth is by building equity in your home. My housing plan would help Americans achieve homeownership by giving households $400 a month for two years when they buy their first home. That is from President Biden. The post From the era of insane economic policy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply...

An excellent book, here is the UK Amazon link, I am not sure of the U.S. plans.  The subtitle is What Late Bloomers Can Tell You About Success and Reinventing Your Life. Here is one excerpt: What this showed is that processing speed (matching numbers and symbols) peaks much earlier than working memory (unfamiliar shapes […] The post Henry Oliver’s *Second Act* is coming...

1985 — World oil production will fall below world needs 1990 — North America will no longer be a reliable source for food export 1995 — The nations of the world will meet (unwillingly) in a Global Congress to tackle seriously the problems of population, food, and energy. 2000 — Under global sponsorship, the construction […] The post Isaac Asimov predictions from 1981 appeared...

German far-left vandals break through police lines and run for Tesla’s Gigafactory, hoping to disrupt production. These people clearly hate both fossil fuel cars and electric cars. They are modern-day luddites pic.twitter.com/5aVD6MeNZ3 — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 10, 2024 And here are some remarks on AI dating. The post A subculture that is German? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to rsm....

1. The teens who make friends with AI chatbots. 2. How Tolkien nixed a Beatles LOTR film. 3. Adam Thierer on state-level regulation of AI. 4. Samo Burja on Mexican drug cartels. 5. Colorado decreases parking requirements. The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to DJ. Nonsense. It’s no more authoritarian to ... by Hmmcolumbia faculty are predictably...

Solar is powering a large share of California’s energy needs during the day and batteries are now powering a significant share at night. NYTimes: Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use […] The post Battery Arbitrage appeared first on Marginal...

The author is Kirk Goldsberry, and the subtitle is Mapping the Remarkable Transformation of the NBA.  I enjoyed this book very much, and the visual are excellent.  The prose reads well, but also sticks to the analytical.  Excerpt: Over 80 percent of NBA 3s involve an assist.  Typical 3-pointers are catch-and-shoot attempts that punctuate playmaking […] The post *Hoop Atlas* appeared first on Marginal...

You heard from Alex on that topic recently, here is my contribution in the form of a Bloomberg column: According to new research from economists at the University of Oregon and the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, new low-skilled immigrants to the US are a net fiscal plus — each adding an estimated $750 a […] The post TC on less-skilled immigrants not being...

Israel and Iran bombed each other like three weeks ago and now oil prices are low enough that the SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] is looking at buying That is from Matthew Zeitlin.  One read of the current equilibrium is that both Iran and Israel have shown they really do not want to escalate, or perhaps […] The post The manufacture of credibility? appeared first...

1. Berkeley festival of smart internet writers, you can apply to go. 2. Lyman Stone on urban density and fertility. 3. Joseph Heath articles, some about Canada. 4. Using social contagion to improve health outcomes in Honduras. 5. Can tech solve the problem of inequality? 6. The economics of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal...

The US has some of the lowest electricity prices in the world. Shown below are industrial retail electricity prices in EU27, USA, UK, China and Japan. Electricity is critical for AI compute, electric cars and more generally reducing carbon footprints. The US needs to build much more electricity infrastructure, by some estimates tripling or quadrupling […] The post The US has Low Electricity Prices...

Maybe by less than people had thought, here is a new ReStat paper by Gillian Brunet: I use newly-digitized contract data on U.S. war production spending over 1940-1945 to analyze the macroeconomic effects of U.S. military spending in World War II. I find personal income multipliers of 0.34 over two years and 0.49 over three […] The post Did World War II pull America...

There were significant differences in SI between psychologists and AI’s ChatGPT-4 and Bing. ChatGPT-4 exceeded 100% of all the psychologists, and Bing outperformed 50% of PhD holders and 90% of bachelor’s holders. The differences in SI between Google Bard and bachelor students were not significant, whereas the differences with PhDs were significant; Where 90% of […] The post GPT-4 beats psychologists on a new...

1. “Authors who were perceived as female responded at similar rates regardless of the pronouns in the requester’s email. Authors who were perceived as male were less likely to respond to emails from requesters with they/them pronouns than all other conditions. This work finds that people who use they/them pronouns experience bias in real-world situations […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Three big volumes, about 1800 pp., these books reprint the true classics behind the origins of economic thought.  These are the best works of economics published before Adam Smith, and essentially they founded economic science.  The originals were edited by the classical economist John Ramsay McCulloch, but they now have been reprinted by Classical Liberal […] The post *Scarce and Valuable Economic Tracts* appeared...

Some of the recoveries stemmed from successful investments that Mr. Bankman-Fried made during his FTX tenure. In 2021, the company had put $500 million into the artificial intelligence company Anthropic. A boom in the A.I. industry made those shares much more valuable. This year, Mr. Ray’s team sold about two-thirds of FTX’s stake for $884 […] The post FTX Customers Poised to Recover All...

We document a convex relationship between earnings rank and cognitive ability for men in Finland and Norway using administrative data on over 350,000 men in each country: the top earnings percentile score on average 1 standard deviation higher than median earners, while median earners score about 0.5 standard deviation higher than the bottom percentile of […] The post IQ matters more at the very...

The real, inflation-adjusted, price of gold is high. Historically, a high real gold price has been associated with low inflation-adjusted gold returns over the subsequent 10 years. Further, historically the realized 10-year rate of inflation has had close to no impact on realized 10-year nominal and real gold returns. An influx of investment in gold […] The post The new economics of gold investment?...

1. “Taken together, our findings confirm that restricting future fossil fuel use will accelerate current-day consumption.” 2. New survey of genonomics, NBER. 3. Dmitri Alperovitch on Taiwan and Ukraine. 4. “The top immigration authority in Mexico is now operating as its own criminal entity extorting, kidnapping and smuggling migrants all across the country.” 5. Scriabin, […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

You will find it here, recommended. The post My choral music playlist for Rick Rubin appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsAn excellent and eclectic list. You might add some Morten ... by Dana GioiaIn reply to Halo. Or this from Hans Zimmer: ... by HaloThis should have made this list due to sheer impact on ... by HaloIn reply to Nicholas Weininger. Completely...

Low-skill immigrants have low wages and thus don’t pay much in taxes but they do use some government services, especially education for their children. What’s the net fiscal impact? The National Academy of Sciences did a detailed scenario analysis looking at the impact over 75 years, thus including second and third generations. Overall the NAS […] The post The Fiscal Impact of Low-Skill Immigration...

The researchers point to unexpected results in trials of school-based mental health interventions in the United Kingdom and Australia: Students who underwent training in the basics of mindfulness, cognitive behavioral therapy and dialectical behavior therapy did not emerge healthier than peers who did not participate, and some were worse off, at least for a while. And new research from the […] The post When are mental health interventions counterproductive?...